National League | Gameweek 43

Apr 10, 2023 at 3pm UK

Poolfoot Farm

Wrexham
3 - 2
Notts County

Mullin (48'), Mendy (69'), Lee (78')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Bostock (45+4'), Cameron (75')

The Match

Match Report

Ben Foster saves a 97th-minute penalty as Wrexham take a giant step towards promotion from the National League with a 3-2 victory over rivals Notts County.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's National League clash between Wrexham and Notts County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wrexham

All competitions

Last Game: Halifax 3-1 Wrexham
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in National League

Goals
for

106

Top scorers

Notts County

All competitions

Last Game: Notts County 3-0 Wealdstone
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in National League

Goals
for

106

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 61.16%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 20.69% and a draw had a probability of 18.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.32%) and 2-0 (5.88%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (4.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.

Result
Wrexham	Draw	Notts County
61.16% ( -0.04)	18.14% ( 0.02)	20.69% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 70.83% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

76.4% (

-0.08)

23.59% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

56.94% (

-0.11)

43.05% (

0.1)

Wrexham Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.21% (

-0.03)

7.78% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

72.34% (

-0.08)

27.65% (

0.07)

Notts County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.81% (

-0.04)

23.18% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.92% (

-0.06)

57.07% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Wrexham 61.16%

Notts County 20.69%

Draw 18.14%

Wrexham	Draw	Notts County
2-1 @ 8.6% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.32% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.01% ( 0) 4-1 @ 4.67% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 4.61% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 3.41% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.2% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.63% ( -0) 6-1 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 4.69% Total : 61.16%	1-1 @ 6.73% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 1.8% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.71% Total : 18.14%	1-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.06% ( -0) 0-1 @ 2.64% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.4% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0) 3-4 @ 0.95% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.73% Total : 20.69%