Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Worthing win with a probability of 48.23%. A win for Salisbury had a probability of 27.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Worthing win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Salisbury win was 0-1 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Worthing would win this match.