Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Welling United win with a probability of 38.92%. A win for Truro City had a probability of 35.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Welling United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Truro City win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Welling United would win this match.