Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Curzon Ashton win with a probability of 43.8%. A win for Southport had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Curzon Ashton win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (8.38%). The likeliest Southport win was 1-0 (9.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.