Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Curzon Ashton win with a probability of 49.87%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 25.54% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Curzon Ashton win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.54%) and 0-2 (8.69%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 1-0 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Curzon Ashton would win this match.