Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chester FC win with a probability of 46.49%. A win for Southport had a probability of 28.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chester FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Southport win was 0-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Chester FC in this match.