Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chester FC win with a probability of 38.97%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 35.01% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chester FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Buxton win was 0-1 (9.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chester FC would win this match.