Major League Soccer

Jun 22, 2023 at 1.30am UK

BBVA Compass Stadium

Houston
4 - 1
Earthquakes

Bassi (3', 3'), Baird (5', 5'), Ulfarsson (78', 90')

FT(HT: 4-2)

Akapo (41', 41')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Major League Soccer clash between Houston Dynamo and San Jose Earthquakes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Houston Dynamo

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: Los Angeles 0-1 Houston
Thursday, June 15 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions

Last Game: Earthquakes 0-0 Portland
Sunday, June 18 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 54.24%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 22.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.

Result
Houston Dynamo	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
54.24% ( 0.71)	23.09% ( -0.26)	22.67% ( -0.44)

Both teams to score 55.29% (

0.3)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.14% (

0.66)

44.85% (

-0.66)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.79% (

0.63)

67.21% (

-0.63)

Houston Dynamo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.55% (

0.49)

16.45% (

-0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.86% (

0.88)

46.14% (

-0.87)

San Jose Earthquakes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.18% (

-0.04)

33.82% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.51% (

-0.04)

70.48% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Houston Dynamo 54.24%

San Jose Earthquakes 22.67%

Draw 23.08%

Houston Dynamo	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
1-0 @ 10.04% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.06% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 5.45% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.22% Total : 54.24%	1-1 @ 10.88% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 5.56% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.33% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.08%	0-1 @ 6.03% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.92% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.23% Total : 22.67%