Major League Soccer

Oct 3, 2024 at 1.30am UK

BBVA Compass Stadium

Houston
2 - 1
New England

Ponce (50', 50'), Sviatchenko (68', 68')
Steres (8'), Steres (8'), Ponce (90+6'), Ponce (90+6')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Gil (54' pen., 54' pen.)
Miller (68'), Miller (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Major League Soccer clash between Houston Dynamo and New England Revolution, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Houston Dynamo

All competitions

Last Game: Seattle 1-0 Houston
Sunday, September 29 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

New England Revolution

All competitions

Last Game: New England 1-0 Nashville
Sunday, September 29 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 64.51%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for New England Revolution had a probability of 16.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.25%) and 1-0 (8.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.65%), while for a New England Revolution win it was 1-2 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Houston Dynamo in this match.

Result
Houston Dynamo	Draw	New England Revolution
64.51% ( 0.07)	19.03% ( 0.01)	16.45% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 58.49% (

-0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.48% (

-0.18)

35.52% (

0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.43% (

-0.2)

57.56% (

0.2)

Houston Dynamo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.6% (

-0.03)

10.4% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.06% (

-0.07)

33.93% (

0.07)

New England Revolution Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.28% (

-0.2)

34.72% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.55% (

-0.21)

71.45% (

0.21)

Score Analysis

Houston Dynamo 64.51%

New England Revolution 16.45%

Draw 19.03%

Houston Dynamo	Draw	New England Revolution
2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.25% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 7.38% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 4.18% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.95% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.79% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.03% Total : 64.51%	1-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.23% Total : 19.03%	1-2 @ 4.57% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 3.82% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.02% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.6% Total : 16.45%