When could Arsenal win the Premier League title? When could Man City win the Premier League title?

Lifting a first Premier League title in more than two decades is no longer a certainty for Arsenal, who have seen their grip on the elusive top-flight trophy loosened by a monumental setback at the hands of their closest challengers Manchester City.

The Gunners entered Sunday’s blockbuster battle at the Etihad Stadium knowing that securing at least a draw was more than enough to remain in the driving seat. However, Mikel Arteta’s men have now passed the steering wheel to Man City, after suffering a second successive 2-1 defeat just a week on from losing at home to Bournemouth.

Arsenal’s once-comfortable cushion at the Premier League summit has been trimmed to just three points by Pep Guardiola’s resurgent side chasing down a seventh top-flight title in 10 years under their Catalan coach.

This gripping title race is well and truly on, and neither side can afford to drop any more points if they wish to finish top of the pile in a month’s time.

As the 2025-26 season edges closer to its conclusion, Sports Mole calculates the earliest that either Arsenal or Man City could win the Premier League title.

What do Arsenal and Man City need to win the Premier League?

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Victory over Arsenal has put the destiny of the Premier League title back in the hands of Man City, who crucially boast a game in hand over the Gunners – a home fixture with Crystal Palace which is yet to be rescheduled.

Arsenal, who have occupied top spot for more than 200 days, currently have 70 points on the board and can only claim a maximum of 85 if they win each of their remaining five league fixtures.

As for Man City, they sit second - at the time of writing - with 67 points, but can also accumulate a maximum of 85 points if they win all of their remaining six matches.

Guardiola’s side know that if they claim every single point available until the end of the season, they will be crowned champions, unless Arsenal do the same and better the Citizens on goal difference. Interestingly, Man City were the last team to win a PL title on goal difference at the expense of rivals Manchester United in the 2011-12 season.

Both teams can only afford to win the league with fewer than 85 points if the other side drop more points than themselves in their remaining games.

Furthermore, Man City’s win over Arsenal on Sunday ended the possibility of an unpresented Premier League title playoff. Now, if both teams cannot be separated by points, goal difference and goals scored, Man City will be crowned champions based on their points won in head-to-head games (Man City - four, Arsenal - one).

What is the earliest that Arsenal can win the Premier League?

Arsenal could theoretically win the Premier League title as early as May 10, if they win their next three games against Newcastle United, Fulham and West Ham United, and Man City suffer defeat in each of their next three matches (including their game in hand).

In this scenario, Arsenal would have notched up a total of 79 points, while Man City would fall 12 points adrift and remain on 67 points, with only nine points left to play for.

Hypothetically speaking, the Gunners could be crowned champions following a win against relegation-threatened West Ham at the London Stadium, before receiving a guard of honour and lifting the trophy in their final home match of the season against Burnley.

What is the earliest that Man City can win the Premier League?

As for Man City, they could theoretically win the Premier League title as early as May 17, if they win their next four games and Arsenal lose in their next three fixtures.

In this scenario, Guardiola’s side would have picked up a total of 79 points, while Arsenal would slip nine points behind the summit with only six points available to collect from their final two matches.

Man City are scheduled to face Burnley, Everton, Brentford and Bournemouth in their next four games and could therefore be crowned champions following a victory over the latter at the Vitality Stadium, before facing Crystal Palace and Aston Villa on home soil.