When could Arsenal win the Premier League after West Ham victory?

Love VAR, hate VAR; Arsenal were most certainly in the former camp at the London Stadium on May 11, 2026 - a date that may very well go down in Premier League history.

Gunners fans were subjected to another torturous watch against West Ham United, who quelled Mikel Arteta's attack after the Spaniard's questionable substitutions, but the introduction of Martin Odegaard breathed new life into the league leaders.

The Arsenal captain picked out Leandro Trossard to fire in a bedlam-inducing goal in the final 10 minutes, but it would not be a Premier League title race without a huge dose of drama, one that the Gunners were on the right side of.

Callum Wilson wheeled away in celebration after volleying home from a corner deep into added time, but among the penalty-box chaos, the officials deemed that David Raya had been fouled by either Pablo or Jean-Clair Todibo, and the goal was disallowed.

As West Ham and other rivals clubs raged at the decision, Arsenal celebrated restoring their five-point lead at the top of the Premier League table, and the former Invincibles can almost taste the trophy now.

As the 2025-26 season edges closer to its conclusion, Sports Mole calculates the earliest that either Arsenal or Man City could win the Premier League title.

What do Arsenal and Man City need to win the Premier League?

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Victory over West Ham has put the destiny of the Premier League title firmly in the hands of Arsenal, thanks to Mikel Arteta's former club Everton denying Man City an expected win.

Arsenal currently have 79 points on the board and can claim a maximum of 85 if they win each of their remaining two league fixtures.

As for Man City, the Citizens can accumulate a maximum of 83 points if they win all of their remaining three matches, starting against Crystal Palace on Wednesday night.

Both teams can only afford to win the league with fewer than 85 points if the other side drop more points than themselves in their remaining games.

Furthermore, Man City’s win over Arsenal ended the possibility of an unpresented Premier League title playoff. Now, if both teams cannot be separated by points, goal difference and goals scored, Man City will be crowned champions based on their points won in head-to-head games (Man City - four, Arsenal - one).

What is the earliest that Arsenal can win the Premier League?

Thanks to Man City's win over Brentford, Arsenal can no longer win the Premier League title before the penultimate game of the season, even if the Sky Blues lose to Crystal Palace in midweek.

In that scenario, the gap would remain at five points with two games remaining, so Man City would be in with a slim chance of overhauling the Gunners in the last two gameweeks.

However, if Pep Guardiola's men are beaten by Palace and Arsenal prevail against Burnley on May 17, Arteta's men will be crowned champions with one game to spare.

What is the earliest that Man City can win the Premier League?

As for Man City, there is no scenario in which the Citizens can win the league title before gameweek 38.

Even if Guardiola's men overcome Palace and Bournemouth while Arsenal suffer a shock loss at home to Burnley, they would only be one point ahead of the North London giants with one game remaining.