Man City or Arsenal: Can Pep Guardiola bridge nine-point gap in Premier League title race?

Manchester City have never gone consecutive years without winning the Premier League title since Pep Guardiola took the reins in 2016, and they may not intend to start now.

This iteration of Guardiola’s team are undeniably not at the same level as the Catalan’s vaunted teams, but they hope to replicate what previous title-winning teams produced in the final stretch of title races.

For much of this season, positive results have proved to be nothing but false dawns, with the Manchester outfit slipping back into old habits of dropping the ball on the odd occasion.

What has mostly stood out previously is City’s knack for stringing wins together to rein in and overtake their co-contenders, pull away from the chasing pack or maintain leads to stave off any competition.

Ahead of facing Chelsea on Sunday, who they have not lost to in 12 matches in all competitions — nine in the Premier League — since 2021's Champions League final, the Cityzens' form in the run-in has come under scrutiny again as they enter their final eight matches.

As reported by BBC Sport, the Manchester giants have won 28 of their last 31 top-flight matches in April under Guardiola, losing just one match during that period.

Digging deeper, their run of 30 wins, five draws and three defeats in the penultimate month of the season sees Pep's team average 2.50 points per game, unsurprisingly the highest among teams to play 15 matches or more in one month.

Doubly fascinating is that City's 2.47 points-per-game in May is second in this metric, further underlining how impressive they can be in the run-in.

Ahead of Sunday's visit to Stamford Bridge, where Man City have won four of their last five, Sports Mole revisits how Guardiola's side have fared in previous seasons across their final eight matches of each campaign under the Spanish manager.

How Man City have fared under Guardiola in the PL run-in

2016-17

Man City 3-1 Hull City
Southampton 0-3 Man City
Man City 0-0 Man Utd
Middlesbrough 2-2 Man City
Man City 5-0 Crystal Palace
Man City 2-1 Leicester City
Man City 3-1 West Bromwich Albion
Watford 0-5 Man City

Guardiola’s inaugural campaign in England was a transitional period for the ex-Barcelona and Bayern Munich boss.

While a sustained title challenge proved elusive, the Cityzens’ clinical finish ensured they did not miss out on Champions League qualification.

High-scoring victories against Crystal Palace and Watford on the final day highlighted the attacking potential that would soon dominate the league.

City ultimately secured third place with 78 points, providing a stable foundation for the tactical overhaul and domestic dominance that would follow in the subsequent years of the Pep era at the Etihad Stadium.

2017-18

Everton 1-3 Man City
Man City 2-3 Man Utd
Tottenham 1-3 Man City
Man City 5-0 Swansea City
West Ham 1-4 Man City
Man City 0-0 Huddersfield Town
Man City 3-1 Brighton
Southampton 0-1 Man City

This was the season of the Centurions, as City turned the final stretch into a historic victory lap.

Despite a brief setback in a dramatic derby defeat, which saw the Cityzens blow a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2, Guardiola’s men were untouchable.

Gabriel Jesus’s last-gasp winner at St Mary’s on the final day ensured the team reached the unprecedented 100-point milestone.

Finishing as champions in record-breaking fashion, they ended the campaign 19 points clear of their nearest rivals, setting new benchmarks for goals scored, wins and points in a single Premier League season.

2018-19

Fulham 0-2 Man City
Man City 2-0 Cardiff City
Crystal Palace 1-3 Man City
Man City 1-0 Tottenham
Man Utd 0-2 Man City
Burnley 0-1 Man City
Man City 1-0 Leicester City
Brighton 1-4 Man City

In a title race of microscopic margins, City produced a perfect eight-game streak to hold off a relentless Liverpool.

Every fixture required perfection, exemplified by Vincent Kompany’s iconic thunderbolt against Leicester City in the penultimate week.

By winning their final 14 league matches of the season, Guardiola’s side displayed immense mental fortitude to retain their crown.

They finished as champions with 98 points, just one ahead of the Merseysiders, to secure the first-ever domestic treble in English men’s football history.

2019-20

Chelsea 2-1 Man City
Man City 4-0 Liverpool
Southampton 1-0 Man City
Man City 5-0 Newcastle
Brighton 0-5 Man City
Man City 2-1 Bournemouth
Watford 0-4 Man City
Man City 5-0 Norwich City

With Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool running away with the title, the season’s final eight matches became a platform for City to demonstrate their continued goal-scoring prowess.

Although defeats at Chelsea and Southampton highlighted defensive frailties, a 4-0 demolition of the newly-crowned champions served as a statement of intent.

The run-in was a barrage of goals, with 25 scored across the eight fixtures, as City eventually finished in second place with 81 points, maintaining their status as the league's most prolific attacking unit despite falling short of the title.

2020-21

Leicester City 0-2 Man City
Man City 1-2 Leeds United
Aston Villa 1-2 Man City
Crystal Palace 0-2 Man City
Man City 1-2 Chelsea
Newcastle 3-4 Man City
Brighton 3-2 Man City
Man City 5-0 Everton

Played mostly in empty stadiums, City’s path to the title was secured through a dominant mid-season surge, which allowed Guardiola to rotate heavily during the run-in while focusing on a first Champions League final.

Despite some inconsistent results in May, the campaign ended on a high with a clinical five-goal victory over Everton.

City reclaimed their status as champions, finishing 12 points clear at the top with 86 points and confirming their status as the dominant force in the post-pandemic era.

2021-22

Man City 2-2 Liverpool
Man City 3-0 Brighton
Man City 5-1 Watford
Leeds United 0-4 Man City
Man City 5-0 Newcastle
Wolves 1-5 Man City
West Ham 2-2 Man City
Man City 3-2 Aston Villa

The 2021-22 run-in concluded with the most dramatic final day in the club's history since the Sergio Aguero-inspired heroics in 2013-14.

Trailing 2-0 to Aston Villa with 15 minutes remaining, City’s title hopes seemed dead before a sensational three-goal salvo in just five minutes secured the win.

Their incredible turnaround was the climax of a neck-and-neck race with Liverpool, where neither side blinked.

Guardiola’s men finished as champions with 93 points, securing their fourth title in five seasons and further cementing their legendary status in English football.

2022-23

Man City 4-1 Arsenal
Fulham 1-2 Man City
Man City 3-0 West Ham
Man City 2-1 Leeds United
Everton 0-3 Man City
Man City 1-0 Chelsea
Brighton 1-1 Man City
Brentford 1-0 Man City

The club's Treble-winning season was defined by a ruthless dismantling of Arsenal’s title challenge in late April.

The 4-1 victory over Mike Arteta's Gunners broke the back of the race and allowed City to coast toward the finish line.

With the league title secured following a win over Chelsea, Guardiola was able to rest key personnel for the upcoming FA Cup and Champions League finals.

They finished as champions on 89 points, completing the first leg of an historic treble that mirrored Manchester United’s 1999 achievement.

2023-24

Man City 5-1 Luton Town
Brighton 0-4 Man City
Nottingham Forest 0-2 Man City
Man City 5-1 Wolves
Fulham 0-4 Man City
Tottenham 0-2 Man City
Man City 3-1 West Ham

Chasing an unprecedented fourth consecutive top-flight title, City produced a perfect run-in by winning every one of their final nine matches.

The pressure of a surging Arsenal side failed to rattle the champions, who navigated tricky away trips to Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur with characteristic composure, and a final-day victory against West Ham at the Etihad ensured history was made.

Finishing as champions with 91 points, they became the first club in the history of English football to win four successive league titles.

2024-25

Man Utd 0-0 Man City
Man City 5-2 Crystal Palace
Everton 0-2 Man City
Man City 2-1 Aston Villa
Man City 1-0 Wolves
Southampton 0-0 Man City
Man City 3-1 Bournemouth
Fulham 0-2 Man City

In a transitional year following heavy injuries to key personnel, City were forced to relinquish their crown to a dominant Liverpool.

Despite a strong final stretch that saw them remain unbeaten in their last eight matches, earlier points dropped during a difficult winter period proved insurmountable.

Guardiola’s side eventually finished in third place with 71 points, securing Champions League football for a 15th consecutive season.

Will Man City supplant Arsenal in 2025-26?

Despite having played a game fewer than Arteta's Arsenal side heading into this weekend's round, City will need to remain unblemished across their final eight league matches to overtake the North Londoners.

While they have no European distractions in the season's final stretch, Guardiola's side will need to draw inspiration from the 2023-24 side, which won their final nine matches after a 0-0 draw with Arsenal at the Etihad in late March to pip Arsenal to the title.

However, City's longest winning streak since then has been six games — November to December 2025 — and they also have a goal difference deficit of seven goals to make up in the run-in.

With nine points separating them from Arsenal in the Premier League table, Guardiola's men may have left it too little, too late this time, although stranger things have happened.