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Manchester City logo
EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 24, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Etihad Stadium
Bournemouth logo
Man City
2 - 1
Bournemouth
Delap (18'), Foden (75')
Delap (79')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Surridge (22')
Zemura (70'), Cook (90+2')

Preview: Manchester City vs. Bournemouth - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's EFL Cup third-round tie between Manchester City and Bournemouth, including team news and predicted lineups.

Manchester City begin their quest for a fourth EFL Cup in a row when they take on Bournemouth at the Etihad Stadium in round three on Thursday evening.

The Citizens have been a dominant force in this competition under Pep Guardiola, but the Catalan boss has vowed to make mass changes for this tie against second-tier Bournemouth.


Match preview

Kevin De Bruyne scores for Manchester City against Wolverhampton Wanderers on September 21, 2020© Reuters

City's 2019-20 campaign ended in disappointed as they relinquished their grip on the Premier League title and fell short in the Champions League once again.

The EFL Cup was their only piece of major silverware in an underwhelming campaign, with the Citizens overcoming Aston Villa at Wembley just before the coronavirus pandemic struck.

Guardiola's men have won 17 of their last 18 games in the competition, the exception being a semi-final second-leg loss to Manchester United last term that ultimately did not matter.

They enter this fixture as overwhelming favourites, too, given that they have won their last 10 meetings with Bournemouth by an aggregate score of 30-5.

Each of those encounters were in the Premier League, with this the first ever meeting between the sides in a cup competition of any sort.

City also looked sharp in their opening fixture of the campaign on Monday, seeing off Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-1 through goals from Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden and Gabriel Jesus.

Jason Tindall pictured with Eddie Howe in July 2020© Reuters

However, Guardiola revealed after that match he will field his youngsters against Bournemouth, possibly giving the Championship side hope of pulling off a big upset.

Since Bournemouth's last defeat to City, they have suffered relegation to the Championship and replaced long-serving boss Eddie Howe with Jason Tindall.

The Cherries have made a positive enough start to their new tenure, following up a 3-2 opening-day victory over Blackburn Rovers with a 1-1 draw at Middlesbrough last time out.

This will be just the second time Bournemouth have faced the holders of the EFL Cup, losing the other such match 3-0 against Arsenal in 1987-88.

Tindall is expected to go with a fairly strong starting lineup on Thursday, and the hope will be that Bournemouth can at least give City a run for their money in this latest clash.

Manchester City form (all competitions): W

Bournemouth EFL Cup form: W
Bournemouth form (all competitions): WWD


Team News

Manchester City winger Riyad Mahrez pictured on July 8, 2020© Reuters

Guardiola has made clear that he will give as many of his first-team players the night off as possible on Thursday.

That is not to say the Citizens will not still have world-class talents in their ranks, though, with Riyad Mahrez and Aymeric Laporte in need of minutes after being forced to miss training following a positive coronavirus test.

Joao Cancelo and Oleksandr Zinchenko are out of action until after the international break, meanwhile, so Kyle Walker and Benjamin Mendy may have to be used in the full-back positions.

The likes of Ilkay Gundogan, Sergio Aguero, Eric Garcia and Bernardo Silva have all been ruled out.

As for Bournemouth, Junior Stanislas missed the Middlesbrough match through injury, but Tindall later revealed "it is nothing serious".

Asmir Begovic was drafted in for that draw, as were Dan Gosling and David Brooks, with Mark Travers and Lewis Cook joining Stanislas in dropping out of the XI.

Tindall is expected to go with a strong starting lineup for this trip to the Etihad Stadium, even if Sunday's league meeting with Norwich City takes priority.

Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Steffen; Walker, Laporte, Otamendi, Mendy; Fernandinho, Bernabe, Doyle; Mahrez, Delap, Torres

Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Travers; Smith, Mepham, Kelly, Rico; Arter, L.Cook, Ofoborh; Brooks, King; Surridge


SM words green background

We say: Manchester City 3-1 Bournemouth

If there is one thing City like more than winning the EFL Cup, it is beating third-round opponents Bournemouth.

The Cherries knocked out Premier League side Crystal Palace on penalties in the last round, but this will surely be a test too far for Tindall's men.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 70.27%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Bournemouth had a probability of 12.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 1-0 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.94%), while for a Bournemouth win it was 1-2 (3.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.


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Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola pictured on June 17, 2020
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