Southampton and Manchester City will lock horns in the FA Cup on Sunday afternoon, with a spot in the semi-finals of the famous competition on offer to both teams.
The Saints won the FA Cup back in 1976, while Man City have lifted the trophy on six previous occasions, the last of which was in 2019, when they overcame Watford in the final.
Match preview
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Improving on last season's 15th-place finish in the Premier League was always Southampton's number one priority this term, and the Saints are certainly on course to achieve that goal, currently sitting 10th in the table, boasting 35 points from their 29 matches of the 2021-22 campaign.
Ralph Hasenhuttl's side will enter this match off the back of three straight league defeats, though, losing by four at Aston Villa on March 5 before going down 2-1 at home to both Newcastle United and Watford.
March has not been a happy month thus far, but beating Man City to advance to the semi-finals of the FA Cup would be the perfect way to bounce back, and it will be fascinating to see how the match unfolds at St Mary's, particularly as Southampton have held the Citizens to two league draws this term.
The Saints, who previously won the FA Cup in 1976, have won three matches to advance to this stage of the competition, overcoming Swansea City and Coventry City before beating fellow Premier League West Ham United in the last round.
Southampton have only beaten Man City once in any competition since May 2016, while their recent form has been disappointing, but this tournament is certainly capable of throwing up surprise results.
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Man City are bidding to win the treble this season and found out on Friday that they would be taking on Atletico Madrid in the quarter-finals of the Champions League, with the first leg due to take place at the Etihad Stadium on April 5.
The Citizens will certainly be feeling the heat in the Premier League, though, with Liverpool now just a point behind them in second position; the Reds managed to win at Arsenal on Wednesday, 48 hours after Man City had been held to a goalless draw by Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.
Pep Guardiola's side have hardly needed to break a sweat in this season's FA Cup, putting four goals past both Swindon Town and Fulham in back-to-back games before beating Peterborough United 2-0 in the last round.
Man City are six-time winners of this competition, including in 2019, when they beat Watford 6-0 in the final, but the fact that Guardiola has only lifted the FA Cup on one occasion since his arrival is somewhat of a surprise considering the incredible success that the Spaniard has enjoyed.
The English champions have been semi-finalists in the last two campaigns, meanwhile, and a record of just one defeat from their last 13 matches against Southampton should mean that confidence is high ahead of this game.
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Team News
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Southampton boss Hasenhuttl revealed during Friday's press conference that only two first-team players are available for this contest in the shape of Alex McCarthy and Lyanco.
Everyone else, including Nathan Tella, is back in training, meaning that the head coach has a number of big decisions to make, balancing squad rotation with a desire to reach the semi-finals.
As a result, Hasenhuttl is expected to select a strong starting XI with a mixture of youth and experience; Willy Caballero should get the nod between the sticks, while Moussa Djenepo is in line for a role out wide, but the likes of Armando Broja, Che Adams and Mohamed Salisu are all expected to start.
As for Man City, Ruben Dias (thigh) and Benjamin Mendy (club suspension) remain unavailable for selection, but Cole Palmer has a chance of recovering from a foot injury to make the squad.
Guardiola selected a strong XI in the previous round against Peterborough and that is again expected to be the case here, but there will be changes from the side that started against Palace last time out.
Indeed, Raheem Sterling, Fernandinho, Ilkay Gundogan, Nathan Ake, Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko could all come in for starts on Sunday afternoon, while there is likely to be a spot between the sticks for number two goalkeeper Zack Steffen.
Southampton possible starting lineup:
Caballero; Walker-Peters, Stephens, Salisu, Perraud; S Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Diallo, Djenepo; Adams, Broja
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Steffen; Walker, Stones, Ake, Zinchenko; De Bruyne, Fernandinho, Gundogan; Sterling, Jesus, Mahrez
We say: Southampton 1-2 Manchester City
Southampton are more than capable of upsetting Man City to reach the semi-finals, but it is always difficult to back against the Citizens due to the strength of their squad. Guardiola can make changes and still send a brilliant side onto the field, and we are expecting the visitors to secure the victory within 90 minutes here.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 62.85%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 16.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.43%) and 1-2 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Southampton win it was 1-0 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
