Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 57%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 20.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Charlotte FC win it was 1-2 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.