Mainz 05 play host to Augsburg on Sunday afternoon with just one point separating the two teams in the Bundesliga standings.
While the home side sit in 15th place, three points ahead of Fortuna Dusseldorf, the visitors currently occupy 13th position ahead of attempting to mathematically guarantee their top-flight status for another 12 months.
Match preview
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Ahead of the trip to in-form Eintracht Frankfurt, Mainz would have been concerned that a third defeat in four games would leave the club in 16th position, the spot which leads to a relegation playoff.
However, goals from Moussa Niakhate and Pierre Kunde earned the visitors a much-needed victory which has left Dusseldorf further adrift of them with four games remaining.
Boss Achim Beierlorzer will also feel at ease that a six-point gap now exists between themselves and Werder Bremen, creating a scenario where a win at the weekend may put them on the brink of survival in the top flight.
With trips to Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen still to come, though, it leaves the stakes at a high level, especially with the added opportunity of moving ahead of their upcoming opponents in the table.
Unlike Mainz, Augsburg remain on a lengthening winless streak, extended to three games last weekend as they were held to a 1-1 draw by FC Koln.
Although the positives will be taken from their response to Koln taking a late lead, failing to defeat one of their direct rivals at home represented a missed opportunity for Heiko Herrlich's side.
Nevertheless, it was another point gained in the battle to avoid the drop, one which effectively leaves Dusseldorf requiring five points to move past them due to their inferior goal difference.
With a trip to Dusseldorf to come on June 20, followed by an encounter against RB Leipzig, Augsburg are not in a position where they can afford to take their foot off the gas.
That said, a certain degree of pressure has been lifted ahead of their visit to the Opel Arena, a factor which could help when it comes to finding the win which could keep them in the top tier of German football.
Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: DDLDLW
Augsburg Bundesliga form: LLWDLD
Team News
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Augsburg boss Herrlich is able to call upon Jeffrey Gouweleeuw, who is available again after serving a suspension.
However, changes may remain few and far between as the former Germany international looks to build on the momentum generated from the dramatic draw with Koln.
Ex-Arsenal defender Stephan Lichtsteiner is pushing for a starting role, while Alfred Finnbogason could be involved after a knee injury.
As for Mainz, Beierlorzer could stick with the same team which got the better of Frankfurt.
His squad is further boosted by the return of Ridle Baku, who missed last week's triumph because of a ban.
With Koln's goals coming from elsewhere at Frankfurt, Jean-Philippe Mateta may get the nod over Adam Szalai in attack.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Muller; Brosinski, Niakhate, Juste, Baku; Awoniyi, Latza, Kunde, Oztunali; Quaison; Mateta
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Framberger, Jedvaj, Uduokhai, Max; Gruezo, Khedira; Richter, Lowen, Vargas, Niederlechner
We say: Mainz 05 1-1 Augsburg
Like many teams in and around them in the standings, onus is currently being placed on not suffering defeat rather than taking risks with pushing for all three points. Right now, a draw would be deemed acceptable by both clubs, and a low-scoring affair could play out.
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 44.49%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 30.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
