Conference League | League Stage

Dec 18, 2025 at 8pm UK

Mainz Mainz 05
2-0
Samsunspor

Widmer (44'), Amiri (48' pen.)

FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Conference League clash between Mainz 05 and Samsunspor, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

Last Game: Mainz 2-0 Samsunspor
Thursday, December 18 at 8pm in Conference League

Next Game: Mainz vs. St Pauli
Sunday, December 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Samsunspor

Last Game: Mainz 2-0 Samsunspor
Thursday, December 18 at 8pm in Conference League

Next Game: Goztepe SK vs. Samsunspor
Sunday, December 21 at 5pm in Turkish Super Lig

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 38.29%. A win for Samsunspor had a probability of 36.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.27%) and 2-0 (5.99%). The likeliest Samsunspor win was 1-2 (8.27%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Samsunspor
38.29% ( 1.19)	24.95% ( -0.27)	36.76% ( -0.92)

Both teams to score 57.92% (

0.97)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.55% (

1.26)

45.45% (

-1.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.22% (

1.19)

67.78% (

-1.19)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.51% (

1.2)

23.49% (

-1.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.48% (

1.71)

57.51% (

-1.71)

Samsunspor Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.7% (

0.08)

24.3% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.32% (

0.11)

58.68% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 38.29%

Samsunspor 36.76%

Draw 24.95%

Mainz 05	Draw	Samsunspor
2-1 @ 8.47% ( 0.16) 1-0 @ 8.27% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0.22) 3-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.15) 4-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.1% Total : 38.29%	1-1 @ 11.69% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 5.99% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.31) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.95%	1-2 @ 8.27% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 8.07% ( -0.42) 0-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.29) 1-3 @ 3.9% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.13) 1-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.95% Total : 36.76%