Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Troyes win with a probability of 40.97%. A win for Pau had a probability of 32.98% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Troyes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Pau win was 0-1 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Troyes would win this match.