Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 39.39%. A win for Sochaux had a probability of 30.33% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.97%) and 2-1 (7.45%). The likeliest Sochaux win was 0-1 (12.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bastia would win this match.