Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amiens win with a probability of 40.41%. A win for Pau had a probability of 33.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amiens win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Pau win was 0-1 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Amiens would win this match.