Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reims win with a probability of 47.75%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reims win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-2 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reims would win this match.