Liga MX Gameweek 16
Nov 8, 2026 1.00am
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Nicolás Castro 8' goal
  • Paulinho 23' goal
  • Paulinho 51' goal
  • Helinho 54' yellowcard
  • Jesús Gallardo 90' goal
  • yellowcard César Garza 48'
  • yellowcard Lucas Ocampos 54'
  • yellowcard Orbelín Pineda 54'
  • yellowcard Óliver Torres 59'
  • redcard Carlos Salcedo 61'
  • yellowcard Fidel Ambríz 71'

Toluca vs Monterrey - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Nov 1, 2026 3.10am
America 2 - 2 Toluca
Goals scored
35
Top scorer
Federico Viñas

Monterrey

All competitions
Last game
Nov 1, 2026 1.05am
Monterrey 3 - 3 Tijuana
Goals scored
27
Top scorer
Lucas Ocampos

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 57.6%. A draw had a probability of 21.93% and a win for Monterrey had a probability of 20.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.83%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%) , while for a Monterrey win it was 1-2 (5.58%).

Result

Toluca 57.6%
Draw 21.93% ▼ (-0.02)
Monterrey 20.46%

Both Teams to Score: 

60.47%

Goals

Over 1.5 81.81%
Under 1.5 18.19%
Over 2.5 61.98%
Under 2.5 38.02%
Over 3.5 39.86%
Under 3.5 60.14%
Over 4.5 25.54% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 74.46% ▼ (-0.03)

First Half Winner

Toluca 48.15%
Draw 34.46%
Monterrey 17.39%

Team To Score First

Toluca 64.62%
No Goal 4.59%
Monterrey 30.79%

Corners

Over 8 66.03%
Equal 8 9.78%
Under 8 24.18%
Over 9 55.4%
Equal 9 10.63%
Under 9 33.97%
Over 10.5 44.75%
Under 10.5 55.25%

Toluca Goals

Over 1.5 58.9%
Under 1.5 41.1%
Over 2.5 32.8%
Under 2.5 67.2%
Over 3.5 15.15%
Under 3.5 84.85%

Monterrey Goals

Over 0.5 58.09% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 0.5 41.91% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 1.5 27.47% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 72.53% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 9.58% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 90.42% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 2.68%
Under 3.5 97.32%

Score analysis

Toluca 57.59%
Draw 21.93%
Monterrey 20.47%
Toluca
2-1 @ 9.94%
1-0 @ 8.83%
2-0 @ 7.89%
3-1 @ 6.39%
3-0 @ 5.66% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.95% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 14.93%
Total : 57.59%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.53%
2-2 @ 5.94% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.59%
3-3 @ 1.65%
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 21.93%
Monterrey
1-2 @ 5.58%
0-1 @ 4.76%
0-2 @ 2.42%
2-3 @ 2.33% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 1.99%
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 20.47%

Head to Head

Leagues Cup
Sep 7, 2026 2.15am
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Shell Energy Stadium
  • Federico Pereira 1' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 4' goal
  • Franco Romero 38' yellowcard
  • Helinho 70' goal
  • Diego Barbosa 74' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Orbelín Pineda 13'
  • yellowcard Hugo Cuypers 90'
Liga MX Gameweek 1
Jan 11, 2026 3.05am
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio BBVA Bancomer
  • Luis Reyes 59' yellowcard
  • Roberto de la Rosa 59' yellowcard
  • Ricardo Chavez 60' yellowcard
  • Ricardo Chavez 61' yellowcard
  • Iker Jareth Fimbres Ochoa 71' yellowcard
  • 81' yellowcard
  • Cristian Isaac Reyes Bermúdez 81' yellowcard
  • Sergio Canales 88' yellowcard
  • goal Helinho 56'
  • yellowcard Jorge Roberto Díaz Price 67'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 74'
  • yellowcard Alek Alvarez 82'
  • yellowcard Jesus Angulo 82'
Liga MX
Dec 7, 2025 1.00am
3
2
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Federico Pereira 19' goal
  • Paulinho 43' goal
  • Helinho 51' goal
  • Franco Romero 89' yellowcard
  • goal Sergio Ramos 58'
  • goal Roberto de la Rosa 75'
Liga MX
Dec 4, 2025 3.10am
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • German Berterame 39' goal
  • German Berterame 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Helinho 59'
  • yellowcard Diego Barbosa 74'
  • yellowcard Jesus Gallardo 89'
Liga MX
Sep 25, 2025 3.00am
6
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX
May 11, 2025 2.00am
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Diego Barbosa 12' yellowcard
  • Diego Barbosa 12' yellowcard
  • Helinho 21' redcard
  • Helinho 21' redcard
  • Alexis Vega 30' goal
  • Alexis Vega 30' goal
  • Antonio Briseno 32' redcard
  • Antonio Briseno 32' redcard
  • Paulinho 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 68' goal
  • Paulinho 68' goal
  • Federico Pereira 80' yellowcard
  • Federico Pereira 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ricardo Chavez 19'
  • yellowcard Ricardo Chavez 19'
  • yellowcard Stefan Medina 41'
  • yellowcard Stefan Medina 41'
  • goal Roberto de la Rosa 48'
  • goal Roberto de la Rosa 48'
  • yellowcard Roberto de la Rosa 48'
  • yellowcard Roberto de la Rosa 48'