Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos Laguna win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for Mazatlan had a probability of 32.84% and a draw had a probability of 25.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos Laguna win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Mazatlan win was 0-1 (8.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.