Separated by just a point and a place in the Group C table, Leicester City welcome Polish champions Legia Warsaw to the King Power Stadium on Thursday, for a potentially decisive Europa League encounter.
While Legia would be confirmed in the top two if they win and group rivals Spartak Moscow do not, the Foxes must avoid defeat and hope Napoli falter if they are to avoid either an early exit or finishing third - which means demotion to the Conference League.
Match preview
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Since their defeat to Thursday's opponents on the second matchday, which left them with just one point from a possible six and in danger of being cut adrift, a minor revival has kept Leicester in the hunt for a place in the Europa League's last 32.
Late last month, the Premier League side went 2-0 down in Moscow just before the half-time interval, seemingly leaving their hopes in tatters, but stand-in striker Patson Daka then took matters into his own hands and struck four times, as the game ultimately finished 4-3 to the visitors.
Brendan Rodgers then saw his team held at home by the same opponents - who had suffered a record 7-1 league defeat in between - when former Chelsea winger Victor Moses opened the scoring and Leicester's blushes were spared by a Daniel Amartey equaliser.
Therefore, the Foxes are still in a perilous position coming into the penultimate round, so Rodgers will hope the club's unbeaten record at the King Power throughout five previous Europa League group games will stand them in good stead.
If the FA Cup winners want to continue their journey into the knockout stages in their second straight competition appearance, then a significant improvement on their stuttering league form will be required.
Forced to settle for a draw against Leeds just before the international break, Leicester returned to action with a deflating 3-0 loss at home to Chelsea last weekend, so find themselves languishing 12th in the domestic standings: with 15 points from 12 games leaving them closer to the drop zone than the top-four place they occupied for much of last season.
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While their hosts are struggling to meet expectations in the Premier League, Legia are currently crashing and burning in defence of their Ekstraklasa title this term, as they sit just a place above the foot of the table with more than a third of the season gone.
Separated from the shame of rock-bottom only by goal difference after Sunday's last-gasp defeat at Gornik Zabrze, the Legionisci have incredibly lost eight of their nine matches in all competitions since getting the better of Leicester in September.
On that occasion, as Mahir Emreli's strike earned the home side their second straight Europa League win, then-manager Czeslaw Michniewicz spoke of his joy at sharing a touchline with his counterpart Rodgers, who he named as a "role model" coach.
However, things have turned spectacularly sour in the intervening period, and Michniewicz was summarily replaced last month by his assistant Marek Golebiewski. A change in the dugout has engendered little positive effect in terms of results though, as Legia have now lost four games in a row - by a cumulative margin of 12 goals to four.
Amid that woeful run, the Polish champions were beaten 4-1 by Napoli last time out in Group C, so having begun their continental campaign at the height of summer in the Champions League first qualifying round, they will not want to let domestic failings further derail their European journey.
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Team News
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Ahead of a potentially pivotal clash, Brendan Rodgers will again be without one of his midfield lynchpins, as Youri Tielemans suffered a calf injury just before the international break and has now been ruled out until mid-December.
Wing-back Ricardo Pereira is also a major doubt for Leicester, after he was left out of the squad last weekend having picked up a hamstring injury in training. Meanwhile, both Wesley Fofana and James Justin remain sidelined for the mid-term.
With a positive result needed, James Maddison or Ayoze Perez may come back into the side to add attacking impetus, while Patson Daka has established his credentials in the Europa League and will be vying for a start alongside either Jamie Vardy or Kelechi Iheanacho.
By contrast, Legia may revert to the more cautious template which helped them beat the Foxes in Warsaw, when three defensive midfielders featured in the starting side.
The visitors will be without the services of Josue, who often plays in a more advanced midfield role, as the former Braga man must serve a suspension.
Former Leicester winger Bartosz Kapustka is still out with a knee injury sustained when celebrating a goal during Champions League qualifying, and veteran goalkeeper Artur Boruc is yet to overcome a back problem, so will again be replaced by his deputy Cezary Miszta.
Mahir Emreli scored the winner when these sides last met and was on target again in a losing cause last weekend, so he should start up front in a probable 3-5-1-1 formation.
Leicester City possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Amartey, Soyuncu, Evans; Castagne; Ndidi, Soumare, Bertrand; Maddison; Daka, Iheanacho
Legia Warsaw possible starting lineup:
Miszta; Jedrzejczyk, Johansson, Wieteska; Ribeiro, Slisz, Kharatin, Martins, Mladenovic; Kastrati; Emreli
We say: Leicester City 2-0 Legia Warsaw
With their visitors in complete disarray, this is the time for the Foxes to strike in Group C, as they face a tough trip to Naples in their final game.
Even if Leicester make a handful of changes, their squad players are more than capable of picking off an ailing Legia side which will surely sit back and hope to survive for 90 minutes.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 45.5%. A win for Legia Warsaw had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.62%) and 1-0 (5.18%). The likeliest Legia Warsaw win was 1-2 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.
