After coming out on the correct end of the scoreline in a five-goal first-leg thriller, Legia Warsaw welcome Bodo/Glimt to the Stadion Wojska Polskiego for the second leg of their Champions League first qualifying round battle.
The Polish powerhouses came up trumps by three goals to two in the first leg, and the winner on aggregate will face either Flora or Hibernians in the next round.
Match preview
A goal within the first two minutes from Legia Warsaw playmaker Luquinhas set the tone for the game early on, and the Polish side seemed set to take a healthy advantage into the second leg when Mahir Emreli put them two goals to the good before half time.
Erik Botheim would head home to reduce the deficit before the break, but Emreli notched up his side's second of the game just after the hour mark before Bodo/Glimt substitute Pernambuco made things interesting with a header of his own, but any chances of a Norwegian comeback were dashed when substitute Morten Konradsen saw red.
After claiming their 15th domestic top-flight title in the 2020-21 season, Legia Warsaw have been handed yet another opportunity to try to make the group stages of a continental tournament - a feat they most recently achieved in the 2016-17 Champions League, finishing third in Group F and subsequently being knocked out of the Europa League by eventual runners-up Ajax.
Czeslaw Michniewicz could hardly have dreamed of a more ideal start to life in the Warsaw dugout - although it was uncharacteristic for a side of their defensive calibre to concede twice in the first leg - but the Polish champions have lost just one competitive home game since the turn of the year, and falling at the first hurdle in Europe is simply not an option.
Meanwhile, Bodo/Glimt are having to juggle Champions League commitments with their title defence in the Norwegian Eliteserien, and after an expected dominant start to the campaign, the reigning champions have tailed off slightly.
Prior to their first-leg showdown with Legia Warsaw, Kjetil Knutsen's side suffered a morale-depleting 1-0 defeat to Sandefjord before playing out a 2-2 draw with Viking, and they are already five points off the pace in second as Molde seek to dethrone them as Norway's top dogs.
Bodo/Glimt travel to Warsaw boasting just a solitary win from their last six matches across all tournaments, and their first-leg defeat to the Polish giants was their first-ever game at this level of football after a few failed ventures in the Europa League/UEFA Cup since the turn of the millennium.
Amid persistent speculation that Knutsen's time in charge of the Norwegian champions could soon be nearing an end, the two-time Eliteserien coach of the year would dearly love to sign off with a positive European adventure before bigger things potentially start calling his name.
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Team News
A familiar name in Artur Boruc will act as the last line of defence for Legia Warsaw, as the former Celtic and Southampton man marshals his backline at the ripe old age of 41.
The hosts did not report any new injuries following their entertaining first-leg triumph, as 19-year-old right-wing back Kacper Skibicki starred with two assists on the day.
Bodo/Glimt midfielder Konradsen will sit the second leg out through suspension after seeing red at the Aspmyra Stadion, but he was unlikely to force his way into Knutsen's settled midfield trio anyways.
The visitors' infirmary includes the likes of Sondre Sorli - out for the season with a devastating cruciate ligament rupture - while fellow attacker Victor Boniface is also recuperating from a similarly serious problem.
Ola Solbakken is not thought to be too far away from a return from a shoulder injury, while Pernambuco is in line for a start on the left after keeping his side in the tie during the first leg.
Legia Warsaw possible starting lineup:
Boruc; Wieteska, Holownia, Jedrzejczyk; Skibicki, Martins, Slisz, Mladenovic; Kapustka, Luquinhas; Emreli
Bodo/Glimt possible starting lineup:
Haikin; Sampsted, Moe, Lode, Bjorkan; Berg, Fet, Saltnes; Vetlesen, Botheim, Pernambuco
We say: Legia Warsaw 2-0 Bodo/Glimt (5-2 on aggregate)
Bodo/Glimt's class of 2020 would be able to give Legia Warsaw a terrific run for their money, but poor fortunes on the pitch coupled with endless speculation surrounding their next manager's move is not exactly a recipe for success.
Furthermore, the Norwegian side are very inexperienced at this level of football compared to Legia Warsaw, and we can only back the Polish side to come up with the goods and advance to round two.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bodo/Glimt win with a probability of 48.12%. A win for Legia Warsaw had a probability of 28.86% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bodo/Glimt win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.72%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
