Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Women win with a probability of 58.9%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Manchester United Women had a probability of 18.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Women win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.91%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Manchester United Women win it was 0-1 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.