Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 39.81%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 36.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.72%) and 0-2 (5.48%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.