Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 43.41%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 31.6% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 0-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.