Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 38.54%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 37.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.

Result
VVV-Venlo	Draw	De Graafschap
38.54% ( -0.22)	24.44% ( 0.22)	37.02% ( 0)

Both teams to score 59.81% (

-0.83)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.99% (

-1.08)

43.01% (

1.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.59% (

-1.07)

65.41% (

1.08)

VVV-Venlo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.73% (

-0.58)

22.27% (

0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.28% (

-0.89)

55.72% (

0.89)

De Graafschap Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.95% (

-0.48)

23.05% (

0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.12% (

-0.72)

56.88% (

0.72)

Score Analysis

VVV-Venlo 38.54%

De Graafschap 37.02%

Draw 24.43%

VVV-Venlo	Draw	De Graafschap
2-1 @ 8.5% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.71% ( 0.23) 2-0 @ 5.79% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 4.25% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.12% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.6% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.42% Total : 38.54%	1-1 @ 11.31% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.43%	1-2 @ 8.3% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.53% ( 0.25) 0-2 @ 5.53% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 4.06% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.24% Total : 37.02%