Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 38.54%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 37.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.