Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 45.53%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Union SG win was 0-1 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.