Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 43.39%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 29.65% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.