Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 53.01%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 25.58% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.91%) and 1-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-2 (6.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.