Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arminia Bielefeld win with a probability of 45.9%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arminia Bielefeld win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 0-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arminia Bielefeld would win this match.