League Two Gameweek 12
Oct 20, 2026 7.45pm
Crown Oil Arena

Rochdale vs Grimsby Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Rochdale

All competitions
Last game
Oct 10, 2026 3.00pm
Tranmere 1 - 1 Rochdale
Goals scored
11
Top scorer
Dajaune Brown

Grimsby Town

All competitions
Last game
Oct 10, 2026 3.00pm
Port Vale 1 - 0 Grimsby Town
Goals scored
13
Top scorer
Kieran Green

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Rochdale win with a probability of 42.13%. A win for Grimsby Town has a probability of 33.43% and a draw has a probability of 24.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win is 1-2 (8.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.44%).

Result

Rochdale 42.13% ▲ (+0.06)
Draw 24.38% ▼ (-0.05)
Grimsby Town 33.43% ▼ (-0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.5% ▲ (+0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.28% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 21.72% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 56.05% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 43.95% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 32.56% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 67.44% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 4.5 18.67% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 4.5 81.33% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Rochdale 31.6% ▼ (-0.04)
Draw 41.13% ▲ (+0.04)
Grimsby Town 27.26%

Team To Score First

Rochdale 48.04% ▲ (+0.08)
No Goal 5.44% ▼ (-0.03)
Grimsby Town 46.52% ▼ (-0.04)

Corners

Over 8 60.39% ▲ (+0.03)
Equal 8 11.46% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 8 28.15% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 9 48.46%
Equal 9 11.93% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 9 39.61% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 10.5 37.1% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 10.5 62.9% ▲ (+0.04)

Rochdale Goals

Over 1.5 43.82% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 56.18% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 19.36% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 2.5 80.64% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 3.5 7.02% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 92.98% ▼ (-0.04)

Grimsby Town Goals

Over 0.5 68.94% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 0.5 31.06% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 1.5 36.25% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 63.75% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 2.5 14.96% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 85.04% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 4.7%
Under 3.5 95.3%

Score analysis

Rochdale 42.12%
Draw 24.38%
Grimsby Town 33.41%
Rochdale
2-1 @ 9.24% ▲ (+0.01)
1-0 @ 8.67% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 6.43% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.49% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 3.59% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.86% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 6.84% ▲ (+0.04)
Total : 42.12%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.44% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.92% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 5.44% ▼ (-0.03)
3-3 @ 1.4%
Other @ 0.18% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 24.38%
Grimsby Town
1-2 @ 8.13%
0-1 @ 7.52% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 4.38% ▼ (-0.05)
1-3 @ 3.46% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 2.87%
0-3 @ 2.53% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 4.52% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 33.41%

Head to Head

Club Friendlies 1
Jul 19, 2025 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
League Two Gameweek 36
Mar 11, 2023 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Blundell Park
  • George Lloyd 68' goal
League Two Gameweek 3
Aug 13, 2022 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Crown Oil Arena
  • Ethan Ebanks-Landell 37' yellowcard
  • Femi Seriki 46' yellowcard
  • Ben Nelson 49' yellowcard
  • Rayhaan Tulloch 60' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Harry Clifton 29'
  • yellowcard Bryn Morris 45'+3'
  • goal Luke Waterfall 90'+2'
EFL Cup
Aug 14, 2018 7.45pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • John Welsh 69' yellowcard
  • goal Oliver Rathbone 39'
  • yellowcard Jim McNulty 67'
  • goal Oliver Rathbone 79'
League Two
Mar 27, 2010 3.00pm
4
1
HT : 3 1
FT
  • Joe Thompson 17' goal
  • Chris Dagnall 20' goal
  • Chris Dagnall 41' goal
  • Chris O'Grady 59' yellowcard
  • Chris Dagnall 90' goal
  • goal Ashley Chambers 43'
  • yellowcard Rob Atkinson 79'
League Two
Oct 17, 2009 3.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Bradley Wood 58' yellowcard
  • Peter Bore 87' yellowcard
  • goal Adam Rundle 24'
  • goal Chris O'Grady 85'