Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 42.19%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 32.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.88%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Wrexham in this match.