Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 44.45%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 1-2 (7.56%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.