Continuing their quest for a return to European competition, Lazio welcome relegation-threatened Venezia to Stadio Olimpico on Monday evening.
Trailing city rivals Roma and sitting seventh in the Serie A standings, the Biancocelesti are seeking to build on a comprehensive victory last week, while their Venetian visitors are mired in the bottom three after nine matches without a win.
Match preview
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Since the end of November, only Juventus, Inter and Milan have accrued more points in Serie A than Lazio's 25, but the capital club remain outside the European qualification places with just 10 games to go.
While head coach Maurizio Sarri is renowned for his expansive approach, he has built much of that progress on an improving defensive record, and following a 3-0 win at Cagliari last week, his side have kept five clean sheets since the turn of the year - only Real Sociedad have managed more throughout the top five European leagues.
Leading the fight at the other end of the pitch, star striker Ciro Immobile opened the scoring in Sardinia last Saturday, as the Aquile soared to success against a recently revived home team - earning just a sixth away win of the campaign from 15 attempts.
Under both Sarri and his immediate predecessor Simone Inzaghi, Lazio have generally preferred to take on all-comers on Roman soil - winning 17 of 19 at the Olimpico in Serie A prior to a recent downturn in fortunes.
Ahead of Venezia's visit, the Biancocelesti have won only two of their last seven home league games, so will be keen to re-establish their previous air of supremacy against an ailing away side.
With elimination from both the Coppa Italia and Europa League punctuating their largely positive league form, all that Lazio have left to fight for is a top-six finish, so they will not want to let the division's 18th-placed team deny them maximum points.
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As if Venezia's current form - which sees them just below the dotted line denoting the drop zone - was not enough for Paolo Zanetti to deal with on Monday, the weight of history is against his team too.
Also beaten 3-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in December's reverse fixture, the Veneto club have never before won in their 10 away games against Lazio in the top flight - losing eight times in the process.
Therefore, a much-needed victory seems all the more improbable, given an awful run of results since the end of November. During that time, the Lagunari have picked up the fewest points in Serie A; sending them tumbling down the table into their current predicament.
Following last week's 4-1 home thumping by in-form Sassuolo, they have posted just seven points from their last 14 games, and with nine losses coming during that spell, confidence is at a particularly low ebb.
Though Venezia have won only three away matches in the current campaign, throughout their modest Serie A history, only in 1942-43 did they manage more away wins in a single season, and they could now match that mark with a surprise success in the capital.
The odds are stacked against them, though, as after conceding seven goals in their last two games, the Arancioneroverdi have leaked 51 in total this season - hardly a recipe for success against Immobile and company.
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Team News
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Lazio coach Maurizio Sarri has no new injury problems to concern him ahead of Monday's game, but Manuel Lazzarri is still ruled out of action and Danilo Cataldi remains unavailable.
The latter's absence means that Lucas Leiva should continue in the hosts' three-man midfield, but Sarri will have to improvise in the full-back positions, as in addition to Lazzarri's injury, Adam Marusic is sidelined through suspension after his red card last week.
Therefore, Stefan Radu and Patric may be required to deputise, but Elseid Hysaj is another contender to start.
Up front, top scorer Ciro Immobile is battling it out with relative newcomer Dusan Vlahovic for this season's Capocannoniere crown, and also needs just a single goal to surpass Silvio Piola as Lazio's all-time top scorer in Serie A - having already racked up 143.
Venezia, meanwhile, will be more concerned about keeping the Italian international at bay for 90 minutes than setting records, but their chances have been further reduced by another injury in the goalkeeping department.
First choice Sergio Romero has undergone minor knee surgery this week, while Luca Lezzerini was recently ruled out until the end of the season. In their absence, Niki Maenpaa gets a rare opportunity to feature as the Lagunari's last line of defence.
Following a booking last time out, which took him over the threshold for accumulated yellow cards, influential forward Mattia Aramu must also miss the trip south, so either former Lazio winger Nani or Sofian Kiyine - currently on loan from Monday's hosts - should start.
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Patric, Felipe, Acerbi, Hysaj: Leiva, Milinkovic-Savic, Alberto; Anderson, Immobile, Zaccagni
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Maenpaa; Mateju, Caldara, Ceccaroni, Haps; Busio, Vacca, Crnigoj; Nani, Henry, Okereke
We say: Lazio 2-0 Venezia
Even if the home side have failed to break through after an hour of trying, they should eventually succeed, as Lazio have scored the most goals in the last 30 minutes of games in Serie A this season, with 22 to date.
Meanwhile, only Hellas Verona have conceded more than Venezia (coincidentally, also 22) in the same time period, which indicates a soft underbelly that could ultimately see them demoted from the top flight - only a year after completing their comeback.
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 73.27%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 10%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.8%) and 3-0 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.95%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (3.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
