Sixth-placed Lazio square off against Hellas Verona on Sunday afternoon looking to extend their winning streak in Serie A to four matches.
Meanwhile, Verona, who are eighth, sit 11 points adrift of the visitors, having recorded three defeats in their last five fixtures.
Match preview
© Reuters
The financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic has led to European qualification becoming a necessity among the elite of Italian football, heaping the pressure on clubs like Lazio who have been struggling to stay in the top six.
However, three successive victories, all by one-goal margins against teams sitting in the bottom half of the standings, could make all the difference for Simone Inzaghi's side.
Lazio benefitted from late goals in the fixtures versus Crotone and Spezia, the strike against the latter coming from the penalty spot in the 89th minute.
Inzaghi will be eager for his side to start making light work of teams below them in the table, but Lazio have reached a point in their season where points matter far more than performances.
Although the fixture list is relatively kind to Lazio until the penultimate weekend of the season, Inzaghi will want to establish an advantage over Roma before their derby showdown on May 15.
I Biancocelesti currently hold a one-point lead with a game in hand, a position which will be put under threat by a Verona side who still possess one of the best defensive records in the division.
Even with seven goals being conceded in four matches, only Juventus and Inter Milan have performed better at the back than Ivan Juric's outfit.
On the back of three straight defeats, Verona claimed a much-needed 2-0 success at Cagliari last weekend, their goals coming from Antonin Barak and Kevin Lasagna.
The former netted his first goal since the end of February, keeping the Czech Republic playmaker at the top of the scoring charts with seven strikes.
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Lazio will be without Manuel Lazzari and Joaquin Correa after both players were sent off during the final minutes against Spezia.
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro and Felipe Caicedo are expected to be drafted into the starting lineup, while Luis Alberto may get the nod over Andreas Pereira.
Matteo Lovato misses out for Verona through suspension, putting Giangiacomo Magnani in line to replace the highly-regarded centre-back.
Stefano Sturaro is an alternative to Adrien Tameze in midfield, but the remainder of the side could remain the same.
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Ceccherini, Magnani, Dimarco; Faraoni, Tameze, Veloso, Lazovic; Zaccagni, Barak; Lasagna
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Reina; Marusic, Acerbi, Radu; Akpro, Milinkovic-Savic, Lucas, Alberto, Lulic; Immobile, Caicedo
We say: Hellas Verona 1-2 Lazio
While attack-minded football is not their strongest quality, Verona will have to push for all three points from this contest. However, that may only play into Lazio's hands, who we expect to claim a narrow win at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 55.45%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 20.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.16%) and 1-2 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Hellas Verona win it was 1-0 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Lazio in this match.
