FC Koln entertain Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the in-form visitors looking to move into the top four of the table with a win.
Koln, meanwhile, moved out of the bottom three with a superb 2-1 win at Borussia Dortmund last weekend.
Match preview
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Indeed, it is hard to imagine even the most optimistic of Koln fans having been confident of attaining anything ahead of their side's trip to Dortmund on the last matchday.
After failing to win any of their opening eight games, Koln were stranded at the bottom of the table along with Schalke 04 heading into the fixture. However, they have been competitive in every match this season, and Markus Gisdol will likely feel his side were due a tight game swinging in his favour.
It was a case of deja vu in Dortmund, with two back post Ellyes Skhiri tap-ins from corners either side of half time enough to earn Koln the three points. The plan was clear: hit Marius Wolf, on loan from Dortmund, at the near post, with his flick-ons falling to Skhiri for simple finishes on both occasions.
Lucien Favre's side rallied as you would expect, with Thorgan Hazard's bending finish giving the hosts hope, before Erling Braut Haaland somehow missed from three yards after Marco Reus's accurate cut-back. As alluded to, though, Koln were arguably due a bit of luck and now have a platform from which to build on for the rest of the campaign.
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After drawing their opening four matches, Wolfsburg have retained their unbeaten record - the only side along with Bayer Leverkusen to do so in the Bundesliga - but have crucially turned draws into wins with 13 points from their last five matches.
Oliver Glasner will be delighted with the style of football his side are currently playing, with the likes of Renato Steffen and Xaver Schlager in superb form at present. Central defender Maxence Lacroix is impressing, too, with his passing range instrumental in turning the match around in the entertaining 5-3 win over Werder Bremen in last weekend's Friday night match.
Lacroix had been outmuscled a little too easily in the build-up to Leonardo Bittencourt's simple finish, but redeemed himself by excellently finding Ridle Baku between the lines, with the attacking full-back turning on a sixpence and firing into the bottom corner. John Brooks and substitute Kevin Mohwald scored headers apiece before Lacroix's superb long pass found Josip Brekalo, who squared for Wout Weghorst to restore Wolfsburg's lead heading into the break.
Brooks turned from hero to zero early in the second half when he turned Milot Rashica's cross into his own net, before Weghorst bagged a brace and Bartosz Bialek scored his first ever Bundesliga goal to seal the three points for the hosts. A fourth successive victory at Koln could see Wolfsburg move into the top four depending on results elsewhere.
FC Koln Bundesliga form: DDLDLW
Wolfsburg Bundesliga form: DWDWWW
Team News
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Gisdol is without Sebastian Andersson and Florian Kainz due to knee injuries, with Jorge Mere and captain Jonas Hector unavailable with thigh and neck issues respectively.
The 51-year-old utilised a back five with great success at Dortmund last weekend, with Ismail Jakobs and Wolf providing excellent width in their wing-back roles, so he is unlikely to change anything against a Wolfsburg side possessing plenty of attacking potency.
Glasner, meanwhile, is without Joshua Guilavogui (torn muscle) and Daniel Ginczek (back), but otherwise has a clean bill of health to choose from.
The 46-year-old will be delighted with Bialek's impact from the substitutes' bench in last weekend's victory over Bremen, with the 19-year-old and Maximilian Philipp giving him great attacking options in an attempt to turn games in his side's favour should he require them.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Horn; Wolf, Cestic, Bornauw, Czichos, Jakobs; Ozcan, Skhiri, Rexhbecaj; Thielmann, Duda
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Baku, Lacroix, Brooks, Roussillon; Schlager, Arnold; Brekalo, Mehmedi, Steffen; Weghorst
We say: FC Koln 1-2 Wolfsburg
Koln's goal difference of negative five is not befitting of a side who had been languishing in the bottom three without a win until last weekend, so it will certainly not be an easy match for Wolfsburg.
However, the visitors are playing free-flowing football at the moment, with Weghorst potentially giving them the edge in decisive moments in what should be a close encounter.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 58.99%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for FC Koln had a probability of 19.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.94%) and 0-2 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.18%), while for a FC Koln win it was 2-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
