The Bundesliga's final match of the calendar year before the winter break takes place at the RheinEnergieStadion on Sunday, with FC Koln hosting Stuttgart.
The home side picked up their first away win of the campaign in midweek, whilst the visitors' revival in form was ended in a thumping defeat on home soil.
Match preview
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Following a disappointing first home defeat of the season against relegation-threatened Augsburg last weekend, Koln bounced back in perfect fashion on Tuesday evening by downing Wolfsburg 3-2 at the Volkswagen Arena.
Anthony Modeste regained his goalscoring touch by netting a brace to take his tally to 10 for the 2021-22 league campaign so far, which included an 89th-minute winner for the Billy Goats.
Steffen Baumgart saw his side remain too open at the back for his liking during a thrilling encounter, but will have been pleased by the number of opportunities that his players created in the final third.
Those three points took Koln above their opponents and into 10th place in the table, with only two points now separating them from Mainz 05 in the European places.
Returning to their fortress at the RheinEnergieStadion presents Baumgart with a big opportunity to sign off the first half of the season in style, in what has been an excellent opening to the campaign for the former SC Paderborn boss following his arrival in the summer.
A poor defeat to Augsburg in front of their own supporters last weekend was a rare setback at home, which Koln will be eager to put right prior to the winter break.
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Meanwhile, Stuttgart saw their successful run of three games without defeat ended emphatically by league-leaders Bayern Munich on Tuesday evening, with the Bavarians dispatching Pellegrino Matarazzo's side by a 5-0 scoreline.
It was a fairly solid start to the game by Die Roten, but once the champions netted the opener shortly before half time, the floodgates were opened after the restart in a forgettable evening at the Mercedes Benz Arena.
The fixture arrived at a frustrating moment for the American boss and his team however, as their poor start to the campaign had appeared to be back on track following wins over Mainz and Wolfsburg, with a 2-2 draw with Hertha Berlin in between as well.
Picking up those seven points from the nine available was vital for Sunday's visitors, as an upturn in results from sides around them in the table as well meant that a drop into the relegation places would have been suffered had they not turned results around themselves.
As a result though, Stuttgart remain in 15th ahead of matchday 17, only above Augsburg in the relegation playoff spot due to a superior goal difference.
With their relegation rivals facing a winnable fixture at bottom-of-the-table Greuther Furth on Saturday however, Stuttgart could find themselves dropping into that position prior to their match on Sunday, as well as occupying there through the winter break should they be unable to pick up a result at Koln.
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Team News
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Koln head into Sunday's fixture with a number of absentees from their usual midfield quartet, with Salih Ozcan's calf injury picked up in the week adding to Ellyes Skhiri's illness and Dejan Ljubicic's muscle problem, which is expected to rule the trio out of this encounter.
Niklas Hauptmann is also doubtful due to illness, whilst first-choice goalkeeper Timo Horn and Tomas Ostrak are definitely out until the new year.
Mark Uth returned from a short absence by netting from the bench against Wolfsburg on Tuesday, so he is an option to come into the midfield on Sunday.
As for the visitors, last season's top goalscorer Sasa Kalajdzic should remain out until the new year due to the shoulder injury that has ruled him out since matchday two.
Erik Thommy, Enzo Millot and Philipp Klement are also nearing returns but remain doubts, whilst Borna Sosa, Nikolas Nartey, Roberto Massimo and Mohamed Sankoh are definitely out until after the winter break in what has been a lengthy injury list for Matarazzo to contend with all season.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Schmitz, Hubers, Czichos, J Horn; Hector; Kainz, Duda, Uth; Andersson, Modeste
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Muller; Mavropanos, Anton, Kempf; Karazor; Coulibaly, Endo, Mangala, Ito; Forster, Marmoush
We say: FC Koln 2-0 Stuttgart
We are predicting Koln to continue their fine home form by recording a solid win to cap off a successful start to the season for them, whilst piling more misery on their struggling hosts.
The visitors remain without a number of players and it has hampered them for much of this campaign so far, so it is difficult to see them picking up any points against a strong Koln side on Sunday.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 55.9%. A win for Stuttgart had a probability of 22.07% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Stuttgart win was 1-2 (5.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.
