KNVB Beker | Second Round
Dec 21, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Stadion Galgenwaard
Ajax

USV Hercules
3 - 2
Ajax

Pieters (16', 66'), Grotenbreg (90+3')
Fonville (42'), van Hussen (44')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Brobbey (83'), Akpom (89')
Avila (44'), Brobbey (75'), Gaaei (77')

The Match

Match Report

Fourth-tier amateur side USV Hercules pull off one of the greatest shocks in Dutch football history to dump 20-time winners Ajax out of the KNVB Beker with a 3-2 victory.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 86.2%. A draw had a probability of 8.8% and a win for USV Hercules had a probability of 5.04%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-3 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (8.05%) and 1-3 (7.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.62%), while for a USV Hercules win it was 2-1 (1.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.

Result
USV HerculesDrawAjax
5.04%8.76%86.2%
Both teams to score 56.22%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
82.06%17.94%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
64.9%35.1%
USV Hercules Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.82%42.17%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.41%78.59%
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
97.23%2.77%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
87.29%12.71%
Score Analysis
    USV Hercules 5.04%
    Ajax 86.2%
    Draw 8.76%
USV HerculesDrawAjax
2-1 @ 1.56%
1-0 @ 1.01%
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 5.04%
1-1 @ 3.62%
2-2 @ 2.8%
0-0 @ 1.17%
3-3 @ 0.96%
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 8.76%
0-3 @ 8.98%
0-4 @ 8.05%
1-3 @ 7.76%
0-2 @ 7.52%
1-4 @ 6.95%
1-2 @ 6.49%
0-5 @ 5.77%
1-5 @ 4.99%
0-1 @ 4.19%
0-6 @ 3.45%
2-3 @ 3.35%
2-4 @ 3%
1-6 @ 2.98%
2-5 @ 2.15%
0-7 @ 1.77%
1-7 @ 1.53%
2-6 @ 1.29%
Other @ 6%
Total : 86.2%