Jamaica continue their World Cup 2022 qualifying campaign on Sunday with a chance to earn their first victory in the Octagon when they host Canada at Independence Park in Kingston.
The Canucks are unbeaten after four games, following a 1-1 draw with Mexico on Thursday, while the Reggae Boys are bottom of the table with one point after losing 2-0 to the USA.
Match preview
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It is safe to say that the Jamaican qualifying campaign has struggled to take off and if Theodore Whitmore and his side cannot turn it around soon, they will be watching the World Cup at home yet again.
His team, who have generated so many strong performances at the Gold Cup in recent years, have not played to their potential so far, losing three of their four matches played in the third round.
On Thursday, they were chasing the game virtually from the opening whistle, as the Americans were first to almost every ball and dominated the match, with the Reggae Boyz only getting 38% of the possession with just a single shot on goal.
They are winless in their last six games and need to improve their play in a hurry before their deficit becomes too much to overcome.
This side have fared well in their previous outings with the Canucks, winning three of their last four fixtures against them, including back-to-back wins at the Gold Cup in 2015 and 2017.
If they are to get the better of Canada, a strong start to this one will be necessary, which is something we did not see from them in their first home fixture of this round when they conceded twice against Panama in the opening half, eventually losing 3-0.
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With every game, the dream of a Canadian trip to the World Cup is becoming more and more realistic as they earned another valuable road point in Mexico this week.
In doing so they became only the 10th nation to go into Azteca Stadium and earn a result against the Mexicans in a World Cup qualifier, but after the match, John Herdman said that he was disappointed that his side could not walk away with what would have been a historic three points.
That hunger and desire to win from their manager seems to have reverberated down to the players, who have been resilient in the Octagon, conceding the opening goal in three of their four matches, but coming back to earn a point each time.
Canada were impressive again on Thursday, particularly in the opening half, showing no fear against El Tri and picking up their first positive result at Azteca since 1980, which was also the last time that they had scored a goal against them inside of that famous stadium, before their game this week.
This team are great when they can take away the middle of the field from their opponents and force them to play out wide, with the Canadians possessing some outstanding wingers who can turn on the afterburners.
Even though the Reggae Boyz are at the bottom of the table, Herdman will quickly point out that no Canadian side have gone to Jamaica and won since 1988.
Defending set-pieces is proving to be quite tricky for them as they appear to be timid while often being caught flat-footed, and that was one of the few issues they had in their draw against Mexico.
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Team News
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Je-Vaughn Watson replaced Anthony Grant in midfield in the last match for Jamaica, Jamal Lowe was inserted over Junior Flemmings and Bobby Reid took the place of Cory Burke in the starting 11.
Damion Lowe will be suspended after receiving a second consecutive yellow card, so we could see Javain Brown, who plays in Canada for the Vancouver Whitecaps, draw into the lineup on Sunday.
Javon East made his second successive appearance for the national team as a substitute, collecting his 16th international cap, while QPR striker Andre Gray sat out of their match with the US.
Canadian midfielder Jonathan Osorio scored his seventh international goal on Thursday, as he seems to enjoy playing in the intimidating atmosphere of the Azteca, having also scored for Toronto FC at that same stadium in 2018 to help them get past America in the semi-finals of the CONCACAF Champions League.
Maxime Crepeau made his first start in goal in the Octagon, replacing Milan Borjan, who tested positive for COVID, while Alphonso Davies collected his second assist for the Canadians in this round of qualifying and Jonathan David hopes that his strong start at club level can continue with the national team, having notched six goals thus far for Lille, which at the moment is as many as Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi and Neymar have scored combined this season for PSG in Ligue 1.
Herdman will have to make some tactical changes for this encounter with Jamaica as Tajon Buchanan, Stephen Eustaquio, Steven Vitoria and Richie Laryea are all out due to yellow card suspensions.
Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Lawrence, Mariappa, Fisher, Brown; Flemmings, Williams; J. Lowe, Magee, Grant; Nicholson
Canada possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Brault-Guillard, Miller, Henry; Piette, Kaye; Davies, Osorio, Shaffelburg; David, Cavallini
We say: Jamaica 0-1 Canada
The Jamaicans seem to be lacking a lot of confidence and are struggling to generate scoring opportunities, while also appearing to be completely overwhelmed by the quality that other sides possess.
Canada will be hampered by some key suspensions, while the altitude in Jamaica will not help, but this team are not afraid to play a more daring style of football, and even without the presence of Buchanan and Eustaquio, there is plenty of quality within this group, enough to earn a victory in this one.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 42.13%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 31.77% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 1-0 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
