Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Urawa Red Diamonds win with a probability of 56.08%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Shonan Bellmare had a probability of 19.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Urawa Red Diamonds win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.25%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Shonan Bellmare win it was 0-1 (7.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Urawa Red Diamonds would win this match.