Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Kyoto Sanga had a probability of 32.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Kyoto Sanga win was 0-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sagan Tosu would win this match.