Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 50.96%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 24.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.