Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 51.73%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for India had a probability of 22.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.82%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%) , while for a India win it was 0-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.