Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 39.39%. A win for Kyrgyzstan had a probability of 33.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.64%). The likeliest Kyrgyzstan win was 1-0 (9%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.