Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 57.65%. A draw had a probability of 21.55% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 20.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Azerbaijan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.22%) and 2-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%) , while for a San Marino win it was 1-2 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.