Only two games remain for Internacional and Atletico Goianiense, who are both chasing a spot in the qualifying stages of the Copa Libertadores next year and will face each other on Monday from Estadio Jose Pinheiro Borda.
The 2020 league runners-up are 10th in the table with 48 points, which is one more than Dragao, who are unbeaten in their last six games.
Match preview
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A season that was supposed to be full of promise for Colorado has turned into a disappointment as they cannot finish any higher than fifth in the table, but even that will be a longshot.
They come into this contest without a win in their last six domestic encounters but in an excellent position to make it to the Copa Sudamericana next year at the very least.
Since the middle of October, Diego Aguirre has seen his team involved in several nail-biting affairs as their previous 11 fixtures were decided by a goal or fewer, but unfortunately, they have only come out on the winning side twice.
Lately, their starts have let them down and forced Aguirre to change up his tactics, conceding twice in the opening 11 minutes versus Flamengo in a 2-1 defeat and then giving up a penalty to Fluminense in the early going as Fred fired home the winning goal.
If there is one area that can explain how they are currently eight places worse than last season, it would be their lack of quality in the final third, scoring 43 goals domestically so far this year, 18 fewer than in their entire 2020 Serie A season when they had the third-most tallies in the league.
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Now that they are officially safe from the threat of relegation, Marcelo Cabo and his team can focus their attention on qualifying for the Copa Sudamericana, a competition that they failed to reach a season ago, finishing a point behind Corinthians in 13th.
A victory in this game would match their points total from last year (50) while also equalling the amount of Serie A victories that they achieved in 2020 when they won 12 times.
Dragao found a way through at the very end of a match for a second consecutive encounter, scoring on their only shot on target to defeat Chapecoense 1-0.
Their low block defensive posture has been solid all year, allowing the third-fewest goals (35) in the league this season.
They have not conceded multiple times in six consecutive contests as all 11 players have worked hard to come back in transition and help defend effectively.
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Team News
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Despite strong seasons from Edenilson and Yuri Alberto, who are tied for the lead in goals for Colorado with 11 each, this side have been missing Thiago Galhardo's presence, as he scored 17 times for them in 2020 and is on loan at Celta Vigo until the summer of 2022.
Rodrigo Moledo continues to miss time with a cruciate ligament rupture, while Yuri Alberto played as their lone striker with Renzo Saravia moving back into a wingback role to replace Gabriel Mercado.
Arthur Henrique picked up the only goal of the game late versus Chape, with Matheus Barbosa collecting his first assist of the domestic season on that play, while Marlon Freitas and Maranhao were splendid as holding midfielders, taking away a ton of time and space against their opponents.
Fernando Miguel did not have to make a single save on Friday as he collected his 15th clean sheet of the campaign, moving him into second place in Serie A, just one behind Everson.
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Lomba; Heitor, Mendez, Cuesta, Moises; Edenilson, Ze Gabriel; Palacios, Taison, Patrick; Alberto
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Miguel; A. Henrique, Eder, Oliveira, Dudu; Maranhao, Freitas; Barbosa, Lucao, Janderson; Ze Roberto
We say: Internacional 1-0 Atletico Goianiense
Even though they have underachieved domestically in 2021, Internacional have lost just one of their last 13 home games, failing to score in only of those matches, while Dragao have never beaten Inter in a competitive game away from home, having been outscored 10-3 in those five matches.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 54.17%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Atletico Goianiense had a probability of 20.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.94%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for an Atletico Goianiense win it was 0-1 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
