Inter Miami have a chance to pick up their first victory of the new Major League Soccer season on Saturday when they host the Houston Dynamo at DRV PNK Stadium in Fort Lauderdale.
A late second-half strike was enough to earn Orange Crush a single point in their previous encounter against the Colorado Rapids (1-1), while the Herons have lost three in a row after beginning the campaign with a 0-0 draw.
Match preview
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The 2022 season is still relatively young, but it is difficult to be encouraged with the form of Inter Miami up to this point.
Following their previous encounter, manager Phil Neville spoke about the team's disappointment in dropping a third successive fixture, noting that he has not seen their hard work at practice translate into game situations.
With just a single point from their opening four games, conceding 10 goals and scoring only two over that stretch, the international break might have come at a good time for them as they look to restore some confidence within themselves.
The Herons have had problems when it comes to maintaining focus for an entire match, while also suffering from a lack of discipline, committing over 60 fouls.
Miami have found themselves behind heading into half-time in each of their previous three matches, forcing them to abandon their original tactics and play more aggressively, leaving them susceptible to the counter.
They have yet to score a goal on home soil this year and are winless at DRV PNK Stadium since thumping FC Cincinnati 5-1 on October 23rd of last year.
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There is still much work to do in Houston, but their opening four matches should leave Dynamo fans, and the coaching staff encouraged about the way things are progressing.
Rebuilding is a process that does not happen overnight, but in the early stages of this campaign, they are showing a lot of fight, coming from behind to beat the Vancouver Whitecaps (2-1) and then claiming a point in the 90th minute versus The Burgundy Boys.
Heading into this campaign, Houston were surrounded with questions about what we would see from them and what would be their recipe for success, and we are getting a taste of how Paulo Nagamura wants them to play after four games.
The Brazilian manager appears to have abandoned the high-press approach that outgoing boss Tab Ramos wanted to implement without success in 2021.
Instead, we are seeing Houston employ a mid-block system, defending more in the middle of the pitch, leaving a decent amount of space between their defenders and their own goal.
That system should be well-suited for Hector Herrera when he arrives this summer from Atletico Madrid, and his presence should bring some stability to their midfield.
They seem to be heavily dependent on a couple of individuals to carry the day, however, chances have been few and far between for this team who are lacking creativity.
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Team News
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Ian Fray will not be available with a torn ACL, while Joevin Jones, Nick Marsman, Victor Ulloa and Ryan Sailor are out with undisclosed injuries.
Edison Azcona, Bryce Duke and Kieran Gibbs are all question marks with undisclosed issues, while DeAndre Yedlin played just over an hour for the USA, who officially clinched a berth in the FIFA World Cup despite a 2-0 defeat versus Costa Rica.
Gonzalo Higuain scored his first goal of the season for the Herons in a 3-1 defeat to FC Cincinnati to go along with one assist which he picked up on a Leonardo Campana strike in a 5-1 loss at Austin FC.
Pat Onstad has been a busy man trying to find the right mix of players to rebuild Orange Crush, who went through their share of struggles in 2021.
The Houston general manager has loaned Joe Corona to GIF Sundsvall in Sweden for the remainder of the season and also signed Flamengo forward Thiago to a one-year loan deal.
A goal in the 90th minute from Tyler Pasher gave the Dynamo a single point against the Rapids in their previous encounter off a nice set-up from Memo Rodriguez, while Darwin Quintero leads the team in goals with two, scoring a brace in their 2-1 win at home to Vancouver.
Nagamura made one change to his starting 11 against Colorado from the team who began their game against the Whitecaps, as Teenage Hadebe reclaimed his spot in central defence, taking over for Daniel Steres.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Callender; Gibbs, Quinteros, McVey, Shea; Taylor, Gregore, Acosta, Mota; Higuain, Campana
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Clark; Zeca, Steres, Hadebe, Lundqvist; Rodriguez, Quintero; Pasher, Ulfarsson, Picault; Ferreira
We say: Inter Miami 0-0 Houston Dynamo
These are the two lowest-scoring teams in the league for a reason because there is not enough vision and creativity on either side to cause a ton of problems for opposing defences, so expect this to be a relatively easy match for both goalkeepers.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Miami win with a probability of 44.04%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 29.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Miami win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
