The Chicago Fire are looking to close the gap in the Eastern Conference playoff race when they travel to South Beach to battle Inter Miami from DRV PNK Stadium on Wednesday.
The Herons saw their four-game unbeaten run snapped this past weekend by New York City FC (2-0), while the Fire edged the Columbus Crew 1-0.
Match preview
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It is not the first time that we have mentioned Inter Miami suffering a setback this season, but Phil Neville saw his side go through another one on Saturday after a series of solid outings previously.
They fell asleep on a few occasions versus the Pigeons this past weekend and paid the price, conceding twice as they currently sit in 12th in the Eastern Conference with 16 points.
Saturday was the first time that they had failed to find the back of the net in their last five encounters, and even though they had more shots on target than New York (4-3), they failed to trouble goalkeeper Sean Johnson.
In a league as physically demanding as MLS can be, paying attention to the small details can make all the difference, and they struggled with that over the weekend as they have throughout much of this year.
They will be happy to return home, where they are unbeaten in their last three fixtures, scoring five goals over that stretch.
As Neville put it following their match on Saturday, there is no time to mope as Miami only have a few days to rest before playing a Chicago side who are starting to climb up the standings in the Eastern Conference.
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It was a frustrating first half of the season for the Chicago Fire, but it seems like this team are starting to turn the corner and find ways to win, with back-to-back victories to move to within six points of a playoff spot.
For the first time in the Raphael Wicky era as manager, Chicago were able to effectively manage their last few games, going unbeaten over their previous four matches while neutralising two strong attacking sides over that span in Columbus and New York FC.
The Fire picked up their second clean sheet in their last three fixtures on Sunday, holding the reigning MLS Cup champions to only one shot on target as they held on despite some nervy moments near the end of that match.
This team have failed to make the postseason over their previous three campaigns due to an inability to string together victories at critical junctures.
A win this Wednesday would mark the first time that they have won three matches in a row since the 2017 campaign, which was also the last time they made the playoffs.
We will see what this team are made over the next few weeks as they embark on a six-game road trip beginning on Wednesday in Miami.
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Team News
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Neville made one change to the starting 11 last Saturday from their previous match with Victor Ulloa starting in place of Christian Makoun, while Kelvin Leerdam and Kieran Gibbs played as wing-backs against New York after playing in midfield against Nashville.
The club will be missing Ian Fray and Joevin Jones with undisclosed injuries, while Ventura Alvarado and Robbie Robinson are questionable with unknown issues.
Gonzalo Higuain leads Miami with eight goals this year and is only one assist behind Gregore and his brother Federico Higuain for the team lead in that department.
Mauricio Pineda made his 12th start of the season on Sunday for Chicago, playing in central defence alongside Carlos Teran and Francisco Calvo, while Boris Sekulic moved up to midfield in their last match, featuring in the starting lineup for the 40th straight time since Wicky became the coach.
Luka Stojanovic has done all the scoring for Chicago of late, with three goals in their last three games, including the game-winner against the Crew.
The Fire have several players listed as questionable for this midweek fixture, including Javier Casas and Ignacio Aliseda, who have right and left shin problems respectively, Miguel Navarro has a right knee problem and Alvaro Medran could be out due to health and safety protocols.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Gonzalez-Pirez, Figal, Makoun; Shea, Gregore, Matuidi, Gibbs; Morgan, G. Higuain, F. Higuain
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Shuttleworth; Sekulic, Teran, Pineda, Calvo; Gimenez, Gutierrez, Herbers, Stojanovic; Beric, Collier
We say: Inter Miami 2-1 Chicago Fire
The Herons have never won a match by more than a single goal in their brief history in MLS but are a much stronger team when playing at home, where they have earned two victories in their last three fixtures.
Chicago are starting to depend a little too heavily on one player to score, which was not a successful formula early on this year, and they still have not won a match on the road in 2021.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Miami win with a probability of 48.13%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 25.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Miami win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.22%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (8.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Inter Miami would win this match.
